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基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理的配電網(wǎng)可靠性評(píng)估
【中文摘要】 配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估是電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估中重要環(huán)節(jié)之一。配電系統(tǒng)作為電力系統(tǒng)中電網(wǎng)直接與廣大電力客戶相連的部分,其可靠性是供電企業(yè)和電力客戶非常關(guān)心的問題,因而也是非常重要的研究方向。配電網(wǎng)可靠性的研究,其目的是向電力客戶提供安全可靠的電力供應(yīng),從而獲得最優(yōu)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和最佳的社會(huì)效益。配電網(wǎng)可靠性評(píng)估的算法是進(jìn)行配電網(wǎng)可靠性研究的重要課題。在常規(guī)可靠性計(jì)算中,僅計(jì)算系統(tǒng)各項(xiàng)可靠性指標(biāo),很少涉及可靠性最薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的識(shí)別,而識(shí)別電力系統(tǒng)可靠性最薄弱環(huán)節(jié),具有非常重要的意義。本文在綜述了一些常用配電網(wǎng)評(píng)估算法基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一種基于貝葉斯時(shí)序網(wǎng)絡(luò)的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估模型。將貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法應(yīng)用于配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估中,利用前向采樣技術(shù),利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)不確定性知識(shí)的靈活表示,利用“用戶配電系數(shù)”,較好地進(jìn)行了配電網(wǎng)的可靠性指標(biāo)評(píng)估,較好的解決了配電系統(tǒng)靈活的因果推理和診斷推理,準(zhǔn)確的識(shí)別了鉗制配電系統(tǒng)可靠性的的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。系統(tǒng)的模擬基于基本元件的模擬,利用元件加速穩(wěn)定法,能較快的加速元件模擬推理和系統(tǒng)模擬推理的收斂速度。以Microsoft Visual C#為開發(fā)工具開發(fā)了配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估軟件。該軟件運(yùn)用高級(jí)面向?qū)ο蠹夹g(shù)和圖形化的手段,運(yùn)用本文提出的基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法對(duì)配電系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行可靠性指標(biāo)的計(jì)算,并定量地分析配電系統(tǒng)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),通過對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析處理,得出較傳統(tǒng)方法更有意義的結(jié)論。最后,用IEEE-RBTS bus2作為實(shí)驗(yàn)系統(tǒng)驗(yàn)證了此方法的正確性和軟件的有效性。因此,基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估是一種較好的方法。
【英文摘要】 The distribution systems reliability assessment is one of the most important parts of power systems reliability assessment. Because distribution system is the direct joining part between power network and the vast power customers, its reliability is the issue power supply enterprise and customers are very concerned about and also a very important research direction. Distribution networks reliability research’s purpose is to provide customers with safe and reliable power supply, thus obtains the best economic and social benefits. The algorithm of distribution systems reliability assessment is an important issue on the study of distribution systems reliability. Reliability conventional calculation involes various system reliability indexs, but rarely touches upon the identification on the weakest links of reliability. However, the identification has a very important significance. This paper presents a kind of distribution systems reliability assessment model based on sequence bayesian networks after summarizing some commen distribution systems reliability assessment algorithms. This method build a bayesian network model of distribution system reliability assessment firetly, apply sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning algorithm to distribution system reliability assessment, make use of forward facing sampling technique, make use of bayesian networks’flexible representation about uncertain knowledge, make use of "User Distribution Coefficient", carry out a better assessment of reliability indicators of distribution network, make a solution of the distribution system’s flexible causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning and identify accuratly the weak links of clamp distribution system reliability.The system simulation is based on the simulation of basic components. The compenents and system simulation reasoning’s convergence rate can be accelerated using accelerated stable methods of components.A kind of distribution system reliability assessment software is developed with Microsoft Visual C# as a development tool. The software make a calculation about reliability indicators of distribution network using sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning algorithm with a high-level object-oriented technology and graphical means, quantitatively analyses the weak links in the distribution system and obtain more meaningful conclusions than traditional methods by data analyzing and processing. At last, IEEE-RBTS bus2 Experimental System proves the method’s correctness and software’s effectiveness. So reliability assessment of distribution systems based on sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning is a better method.
【中文關(guān)鍵詞】 配電系統(tǒng); 可靠性評(píng)估; 貝葉斯時(shí)序模擬推理算法; 元件加速穩(wěn)定
【英文關(guān)鍵詞】 Distribution system; Reliability assessment; Sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning algorithm; Accelerated stable methods of component
【論文目錄】
摘要 4-5
Abstract 5-6
第一章 緒論 9-14
1.1 配電系統(tǒng)可靠性概念 9
1.2 配電系統(tǒng)特點(diǎn) 9
1.3 配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估的重要意義 9-10
1.4 配電系統(tǒng)可靠性研究的任務(wù) 10-11
1.5 國(guó)內(nèi)外可靠性研究的發(fā)展與現(xiàn)狀 11-13
1.5.1 國(guó)外配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)價(jià) 11-12
1.5.2 我國(guó)配電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)可靠性的研究以及發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀 12-13
1.6 本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和主要貢獻(xiàn) 13-14
第二章 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)推理 14-22
2.1 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)概述 14
2.2 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的研究與發(fā)展 14-15
2.3 貝葉斯推理問題簡(jiǎn)介 15-19
2.3.1 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)簡(jiǎn)介 15-16
2.3.2 D-Separation 判定準(zhǔn)則 16-17
2.3.3 單連通和多連通貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò) 17-18
2.3.4 推理問題簡(jiǎn)介 18
2.3.5 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)精確推理算法的計(jì)算復(fù)雜度 18-19
2.4 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的近似推理 19-20
2.4.1 基于搜索的方法 19-20
2.4.2 隨機(jī)模擬方法 20
2.5 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的理論基礎(chǔ) 20-22
第三章 配電系統(tǒng)及其可靠性評(píng)估 22-33
3.1 引言 22
3.2 配電系統(tǒng) 22-24
3.2.1 配電系統(tǒng)概念 22
3.2.2 配電系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和運(yùn)行特點(diǎn) 22-24
3.3 配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估的模型 24-27
3.3.1 二狀態(tài)模型 24-25
3.3.2 三狀態(tài)模型 25-26
3.3.3 七狀態(tài)模型（簡(jiǎn)化成四狀態(tài)模型） 26-27
3.4 元件的可靠性 27-30
3.5 配電可靠性評(píng)估的指標(biāo) 30-33
3.5.1 負(fù)荷點(diǎn)可靠性評(píng)估 31
3.5.2 系統(tǒng)的可靠性指標(biāo) 31-33
第四章 基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估 33-53
4.1 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型 33-34
4.2 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建立 34-39
4.2.1 路徑搜索方法 34-35
4.2.2 基本故障后果分類 35-37
4.2.3 樹型鏈表的生成 37-38
4.2.4 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形成 38-39
4.3 基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法的可靠性分析 39-43
4.3.1 貝葉斯時(shí)序模擬推理算法元件模擬 39-40
4.3.2 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理的“因果”節(jié)點(diǎn)模型 40-41
4.3.3 時(shí)序模擬推理過程 41-43
4.4 基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法的實(shí)際算例分析 43-46
4.4.1 單出線配電系統(tǒng)接線圖 43-44
4.4.2 單出線配電系統(tǒng)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖 44
4.4.3 結(jié)果分析 44-46
4.5 因果模擬推理與診斷模擬推理 46-48
4.6 基于元件加速穩(wěn)定法的單出線配電系統(tǒng)的可靠性分析結(jié)果 48-50
4.6.1 加快貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法收斂速度的方法 48
4.6.2 元件加速穩(wěn)定法 48-49
4.6.3 基于元件加速穩(wěn)定法的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性分析 49-50
4.7 基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)序模擬推理算法的程序的實(shí)現(xiàn) 50-53
4.7.1 開發(fā)平臺(tái) 50-51
4.7.2 程序框圖及程序界面 51-53
第五章 結(jié)論與展望 53-54
參考文獻(xiàn) 54-58
附錄 58-59
在讀期間發(fā)表的學(xué)術(shù)論文 59-60
作者簡(jiǎn)歷 60-61
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