IT英語:谷歌的遠(yuǎn)水解不了百度的近渴
要是你最大的競爭對手看起來肯定會撤出你已經(jīng)占有絕對優(yōu)勢的市場，那絕對是好消息。
When your biggest rival looks set to leave a market you already dominate, it must be good news.
中國最主要的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索引擎百度的投資者似乎就是這么想的：自谷歌聲稱不愿再接受中國政府對于搜索結(jié)果的審查、考慮撤出中國以來，百度股價(jià)一周內(nèi)躍升21.5%。
Investors in Baidu, China's leading internet search engine certainly seem to think so: its shares have jumped 21.5% in the week since Google said it's considering leaving China, no longer willing to accept Beijing's strictures on search results.
事實(shí)上，即使谷歌退得正是時(shí)候，百度本身也出現(xiàn)了很多問題，足以表明投資者對其前景的熱心有點(diǎn)過頭了。
In fact, Baidu's seeing enough problems of its own to suggest investors' ebullience about its prospects is overdone, even if Google's potential retreat comes at an opportune moment.
百度在這個(gè)月已經(jīng)損失了兩位高管，最新一位是其首席技術(shù)官。而這正值百度因廣告系統(tǒng)更換而面臨困境之際，百度已經(jīng)預(yù)測，其廣告系統(tǒng)將導(dǎo)致第四季度收入較前一季度增幅減少10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
Already this month, the company has lost two senior executives, the latest being its chief technology officer. This as Baidu struggles with a change to its advertising system which, it has already forecast, will see it leave ten percentage points of potential revenue growth on the table, in the fourth quarter from the previous three months.
隨著谷歌攻城掠地，百度在中國搜索引擎市場的'份額也不斷下滑。研究公司易觀國際預(yù)計(jì)百度2009年第四季度收入占市場58.4%的份額，依然堪稱強(qiáng)勁，但卻是百度兩年半以來最低的份額。
Its share of the Internet search engine market in China has been in decline too, as Google made ground. Baidu's share of market revenues fell to 58.4% in the last quarter of 2009, research firm Analysys estimates: still strong, but Baidu's lowest share for two and a half years.
當(dāng)然，一旦谷歌撤出中國，這些擔(dān)憂都將煙消云散。即便認(rèn)為百度不會攫取谷歌全部市場份額的人也預(yù)期此事將對百度產(chǎn)生積極效應(yīng)。瑞信預(yù)計(jì)，百度只能獲得谷歌所損失收入的三分之一，這樣一來百度的市場份額將接近70%，在擁有近4億網(wǎng)民的中國，如此地位令人稱羨。
Certainly, all of these worries could be offset by Google's departure from China. Even those who don't expect Baidu to gain all of Google's market share expect a positive impact. Credit Suisse says Baidu may only take a third of Google's lost revenues -- but that would put its market share near 70%, an enviable position in a country now boasting nearly 400 million internet users.
然而百度當(dāng)前的股票預(yù)期市盈率高達(dá)70倍有余，為上年同期的三倍，因此當(dāng)前并不是買進(jìn)該股的最好時(shí)機(jī)，尤其是考慮到短期內(nèi)可能還會有更多負(fù)面消息出爐。
But with its shares already trading at over 70 times expected earnings -- three times the valuation seen a year ago -- there certainly will be better times to buy into Baidu, especially given the potential for more negative news in the short-term.
舉例來說，百度廣告銷售方面的問題就可能為該公司2010年第一季度收益前景蒙上陰影。另外別忘了，谷歌事件也需要一些時(shí)間才能明朗化。
The problems with Baidu's advertising sales, for example, are likely to cloud the earnings outlook in 2010's first quarter. Nor should it be forgotten that the Google situation will take some time to reach a clear resolution.
還有一種可能是，百度當(dāng)前的問題或許是暫時(shí)的，最終它將成為谷歌事件的最大受益者。但在中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)，現(xiàn)在是一切皆不好說。
It may be the case that Baidu's current problems prove temporary, leaving it the main beneficiary of the Google fallout. But in the Chinese Internet scene, nothing's a given right now.
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